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The Value

The term “value” is translated as “value” and is intended to express the added value of a sports bet. In plain language, this means that the respective bet is profitable and the own estimate of the probability of a victory is higher than that of the bookmaker, and thus superior to this. However, this should be considered on a long-term basis, because a value bet offers no guarantee of winning a bet. However, this strategy is not tied to any particular odds. However, if your own estimate is 50% and that of the bookie is also 50%, you will neither make a loss nor a profit. It is important to compare the odds. If I should point out that a provider has estimated too high for a certain weather event, one can already count on a value. However, what you should keep in mind here is sufficient patience and sufficient capital. After all, a lot of values start at the back and you also have to be able to steer enough in order to achieve a high chance of profit. Furthermore, it is appropriate to approach the matter with sufficient expertise and select sports that offer a sufficient potential of value bets. These include football, golf and tennis. It is also important to be registered with several bookies.

The Surebet

A Surebet is a form of betting that leads to a very high probability of a positive return. The only thing that is necessary is the application of mathematical patterns. Prerequisite for this special method are different odds ratios of the individual bookmakers. Surebets are extremely difficult to calculate, but they inevitably lead to success if a certain event or bet is not cancelled. In order to better understand a Surebet, it is essential to clarify some basic questions in advance. The profit is calculated by multiplying the stake and odds and deducting the betting tax of 5 percent. However, this tax is not levied on all betting providers. If you divide 1 by 3 odds and add them together, you get a surbet if the calculated value is less than 1. This can be illustrated as follows: 

1/(quote 1) + 1/(quote 2) + 1/(quote 3) = <1

In order to be able to use this lucrative possibility optimally, it offers itself to use a special software for it. These Surebet programs allow a very fast and clear comparison of the odds. One should also always use the bonus offers for Surebets. You can choose between the Tipico Bonus and the Betway Bonus, with which you can double your betting budget. This also reduces the betting risk. (Source: https://www.betting.org/) 

The application of numbers is important 

Instead of gut instinct, you should focus first and foremost on facts and figures. In order to achieve long-term success, it is important to use objective numerical values to calculate probabilities. This only requires the basic arithmetic operations and spreadsheet programs. Only then can future events be predicted and value bets be made. Emotional decisions should therefore only be considered as part of the overall analysis in order to achieve positive returns. Probabilities can basically be subjective, mathematical as well as the probability that is important for betting. The former is based more on arbitrary or gut feeling estimates and the latter is a fixed mathematical model called stochastics or statistics. Examples are the tossing of a coin or the chance of winning a lottery game. Here, the terms “failure” and “event” are also juggled. An event is the occurrence of a certain prediction (e.g. the rolling of a 5). The different possibilities are considered to be failures, i.e. all events are summarized. Statistics and stochastics are summarized under the term probability theory and can be a good aid for sports betting. For example, you can calculate the probability resulting from 6 out of 8 betting tips or if it is known, for example, that 56% of Bundesliga matches are decided with the victory of the home team. Thus, you can develop a forecast with the findings of the statistics and its key figures.

Developing an understanding of odds

Betting odds mainly consist of the probability of the prediction occurring and the bookmaker’s margin in order to guarantee a certain profit for the provider. Investments can thus be made sensibly if the corresponding odds are compared beforehand. The probability is determined by the bookmaker and indicates how high he sees the chance that a certain event will occur. Finally, the probabilities are added to calculate the final result. 

Documentation of bets

What may be a horror for many people, however, is an indispensable part of the activity of a professional betting player. All bets played, but also winnings and losses must be recorded and evaluated. Thus one can read out, if one is already longer time thereby whether a positive net yield develops. It is possible by block and pen, but also with the help of Excel tables. What should not be missing in the record are type of bet, odds, amount of bet, profit and loss. Other factors can of course also be included, the only important thing is that the data is evaluated at the end.

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